Mitt Romney come ampiamente previsto ha vinto ai punti il Super Tuesday, ma, come ampiamente previsto, continua a non convincere l’elettorato repubblicano che lo vota quasi storcendo la bocca, quando non sceglie anche il candidato più improbabile pur di non votarlo. In Virginia, per esempio – dove, per problemi procedurali, non c’erano né Santorum né Gingrich -, Ron Paul, l’unico candidato a parte Romney, s’è beccato il 40% dei voti.
Nate Silver sul New York Times mette in luce i punti a favore di Romney:
1. When it was all over, Mr. Romney won about 40 percent of the popular vote, took about 50 percent of the delegates and won 60 percent of the states — all ratios that are extremely consistent with what he had done to date.
2. If Super Tuesday once again demonstrated that Mr. Romney is not likely to win the nomination by acclamation, it also demonstrated (once again) that all of the other candidates have deeper flaws.
John Dickerson su Slate, invece, nota le vulnerabilità del milionario mormone:
Romney won the Ohio primary by a prosciutto-thin margin, given that he out spent his rival Rick Santorum by 4-to-1. The victory in the most coveted Super Tuesday contest was the story of disaster narrowly averted. Santorum could tell a story of defying the odds and marvel at how far he’d come. He won three of the 10 races—with victories in Oklahoma, North Dakota, and Tennessee—and nearly claimed the big prize with a campaign operation held together by bailing wire and sturdy boards found at the roadside. The Republican presidential campaign is now a battle between a movement and mathematics. Santorum has the energy and support of the noisy part of the party—the Tea Party stalwarts and evangelicals for whom conviction and shared values are everything. Romney’s ugly win in Ohio only continues to raise doubts about the soundness of his enterprise: Is he only ahead, eking out these victories, because he has an enormous advantage in money and organization, two things he won’t have against Barack Obama?
In sintesi l’ex governatore del Massachusetts ha dalla sua i soldi, l’organizzazione, la matematica – le regole delle primarie repubblicane non sono proprio proporzionali -, ma ha contro una preoccupante mancanza di carisma personale e un’incapacità ormai proverbiale di “energizzare” la base repubblicana. E questo il primo martedì di novembre potrebbe contare.
FiveThirtyEight (New York Times), Slate